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Announcement 13 June 2007. UCL restores DC's IMPROBABLE SCIENCE page. After taking legal advice, the provost and I have agreed a joint statememt. Read it on the UCL web site. “ . . . the Provost and Professor Colquhoun have taken advice from a senior defamation Queen’s Counsel, and we are pleased to announce that Professor Colquhoun’s website – with some modifications effected by him on counsel’s advice - will shortly be restored to UCL’s servers.” I am grateful to UCL for its legal support, and I'm very grateful too for the enormous support I've had from many people, especially since Ben Goldacre mentioned the site move. Now all I need is a bit of help to get it into a more convenient format. The page will stay at its present address until there is time to sort things out. For some of the fallout from these events, click here. Announcement 30 May 2007. My item about claims made for alleged benefits of the red clover and other herbs has resulted in complaints being made to the provost of UCL (Malcolm Grant), and to Chair of Council (Lord Woolf). The complaints have come from Alan Lakin, husband of Ann Walker. I have received no complaints from them myself. In the six or so years that I have been running this attempt to improve public understanding of science, I am aware of only two serious complaints being made, and as far as I know, this is the first to reach the level of the provost. This one resulted in the removal of this page from the UCL server, but that is now reversed. Written by David Colquhoun. [email me]. This page has been loaded times. Alias for this page: www.dcquack.org.uk (email david@dcquack.org.uk .)
Latest news starts here: Jump to most recent item
“There is currently insufficient evidence of effectiveness either to recommend homeopathy as a treatment for any specific condition.” NHS CENTRE FOR REVIEWS AND DISSEMINATION (University of York) [get pdf]
Latest news starts hereUpdates on the fallout . . .“UCL have just issued a smashing statement on Prof Colquhoun’s de-excommunication.” Comment from badscience. This episode seems to have sparked a close inspection of some of the claims made by Ann Walker, Here are some examples. “Dr Ann Walker and Her Neanderthal Theories”. An analysis of Walker's theory about the Neanderthal diet. “Ann Walker festival: "There is no convincing evidence that Ginkgo biloba is efficacious for dementia and cognitive impairment" ” Holfordwatch takes a cool look at more claims by Ann Walker. “Red Clover comments leave a bitter aftertaste” Click here “The War Against Gobbledygook” Comment from Astrophysicists. "UCL Makes good" Conment from the University of Minnesota "Science bloggers unite" Comment from a Yale neurologist "The Guardian: a quackbuster . . . " Comment from MIT (and it's on the MIT server). Laying on of hands: just tick the boxThe Islington Tribune (11 May 2007) revealed that spiritual healers are being paid by the NHS. The National Secular Society commented
A defence of this procedure was offered in an email from Martin Lerner (Divisional Manager, Cancer Services)' He cites cancertherapies.org.uk as saying. "Today we are also entering the era where appropriate scientific studies of complementary therapy will begin to show specific improvements in outcome for some patients." Hang on. Aren't you meant to get the scientific studies before you start treating patients? Lerner goes on to say “UCLH does employ the staff and provide some of the budget (about £90,000 this year) towards the cost of this service, with a similar amount raised through charitable fundraising. By making these complementary therapy services an integral part of the clinical service, we show that we take responsibility for the whole of the patient's wellbeing, . . . ” Spiritual healing clearly comes under the heading of “dishonest” placebo effects. Nobody is disputing the value to some patients of palliative treatments. The placebo effect can be quite powerful. But is seems the proponents of laying-on-of hands have not considered adequately the lying dilemma The laying-on-of hands also gives rise to the training dilemma. What does it mean to be "trained", In something that is essentially mumbo-jumbo?. Well this poses no problem for the box-ticking mentality of the corporate administrator, Just tick the box. Here is the application form. It seems that if you can produce a piece of paper saying you are well-qualified in mumbo-jumbo, then everything is fine. There is more on the box-ticker mentality elsewhere. It is only too typical of the "efficient administration" that results from corporatisation of the health service, and universities, and the removal of power from those who know what they are talking about.
What is the evidence about “spiritual healing” ?Very little it seems. There is an interesting paper with the title “Psychotherapy and Survival in Cancer: The Conflict Between Hope and Evidence”, by Coyne, Stefanek & Palmer (2007) [download the paper]. They conclude that, despite the popular belief to the contrary, there is little reason to believe that psychotherapy can prolong life in cancer patients. Insofar as complementary treatments are placebos, they count as a form of psychotherapy. No doubt, mumbo-jumbo can make some people feel better, and to that extent it is justified. But it can and should done be honestly (for example, foot massage is fine, 'reflexology' isn't). Lies to patients should be minimised and universities should not be tempted to hand out certificates in mumbo jumbo.Tomatso therapyWell actually it is Amatsu therapy, another of the near-infinite number of sects of the laying-on-of-hands folks. There is a beautiful spoof here.“It takes a holistic approach to a client's financial affairs, seeking to rebalance them in the therapist's favour.” The Goldacre effectSaturday 9 June 2007. The wires (and my hit counter) are melting after Ben Goldacre's comments on the move of this web site from UCL's servers. That's understandable: his excellent badscience.net site gets 12,000 hits a day and 95,000 unique visitors per month. Like all the other comments, his badscience column in today's Guardian, was not solicited by me, but it's wonderful to know that somebody cares. His badscience.net version ("The Mighty David Colquhoun"!) was even more over-the-top. I can't say I'm feeling very "mighty" at the moment. Goldacre's piece starts "I've always said you'd get a lot more kids interested in science if you told them it involves fighting - which of course it does." A correspondent today enlarged on the theme "you have got me thinking and yes my kids would be far more interested in science if a playstation game was created whereby Prof. Colquhoun was zapping disgruntled alternative therapists". The mind boggles. Making money out of selling mindless violence (in the news again today) must be even worse than making money out of selling useless pills. A university should be one of the few places left where one cannot be accused of knowing the price
of everything, and the value of nothing. Read the provost's reply.Goldacre has posted the complete text of the provost's reply to one of the many people who have written to him. You should read the other side of the story too (click here and search for "letter from provost"). Grant has a real problem. He shouldn't have to spend time fending off herbalists. Yet if they aren't fended off, more attacks will occur. Who'd be a provost? That is all sorted out now. The moving of DC's Improbable Science pageUCL felled by a herbalist?OK this isn't really bad science, but it's caused inconvenience to me and to readers. It still puzzles me that UCL has not got the resources to deal with a herbalist (the reason that I was given for the move). On Friday 1 June, when it was announced that the IMPROBABLE SCIENCE page had been moved from the UCL server, several people sent letters to the provost. Here is one of them. I have never met Prof Shafer, but his letter, and other similar ones, lightened an otherwise bad day.
No doubt it is an exaggeration to say "the Improbable Science web page was among the most important public services made available by the University College London". But thanks anyway. After an unrepentent response, Professor Shafer replied thus.
Hmmm. Anybody know a good lawyer? How to get good scienceA different sort of bad science: the use of silly numerical indices for the assessment of the worth of people. An essay that illustrates the numbskulled nature of assessment metrics (as used at Imperial College Medical School) is on a new site, http://goodscience.org.uk. This is an extended version of comments made in the Times Higher Education Supplement, June 1 2007. Homeopathy on the NHS: one year onMay 23, 2007. A year ago, our letter to NHS Trusts urged them to stop paying for "unproven and disproved treatments". A year on, we sent a second letter. Read it here. On May 23 2007, John Humphrys introduced coverage of this on the Radio 4 Today Programme with the words "Doctors who think homeopathy is a waste of time and money seem to be winning the argument" To listen to his interview with Raymond Tallis and Peter Fisher click here. In the interview, Peter Fisher not only misrepresented the evidence, as usual, but also he said “We are integrating it [homeopathy] within NHS services in University College London which is one of the leading, you know, biomedical centres in the country” Hang on a moment! I'm glad that Fisher thinks that UCL is a "leading biomedical centre", but he does not work for UCL (which is a university), but for the UCLH Trust, which is an NHS Trust. This shameless attempt to use the reputation of a quite different institution to bolster his case smacks of desperation (not to mention mendacity). After Fisher's emphasis on "integration", Tallis commented
The evidence Our second letter to NHS Trusts said "If you have not already reviewed your own trust’s provision, you might find it useful to consider, in conjunction with your Director of Public Health, the paper that we have enclosed which, while not a full review of the scientific position, has been used by other trusts to promote evidence based commissioning.". This letter has a summary of the evidence, Download the evidence hereGood reports in the newspapers include "Hard-up NHS trusts cut back on unproven homoeopathy treatment": Mark Henderson in The Times "Doctors renew drive to ban NHS homeopathy": James Randerson, in the GuardianFish oils: what NICE actually saidMuch has been written here (and here), and especially by Ben Goldacre, about the irresponsible promotion of omega-3 fatty acids and fish oil on the basis of next-to-no evidence. Now the National Insitute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) is reported as recommending fish oil (e.g. BBC). Before the supplement hucksters get too excited, try looking at their report. The report concerns only the question of how to minimise the chances of another heart attack (myocardial infarction, MI) after you have had one. One section of the advice (among many) concerns diet.
Later, on page 27, the evidence is assessed.
Lord Hunt thinks “psychic surgery” is a “profession”
“Psychic surgery is nothing but a total hoax.”“Psychic surgery was discredited by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission in 1975. In a unanimous opinion, the commission declared that "'psychic surgery' is nothing but a total hoax." Judge Daniel H. Hanscom, in granting the FTC an injunction against travel agencies promoting psychic surgery tours, said: "Psychic surgery is pure and unmitigated fakery. The 'surgical operations' of psychic surgeons ... with their bare hands are simply phony." (see here) ”
Clearly misunderstanding the nature of science is not restricted to any political party. In any case, regulation of crackpot medicine arguably does more harm than good (see letter, below). Most sorts of crackpot medicine are desparate to be "regulated" by the government. They know that the regulation is ineffective, and they know that it gives them a stamp of governnment approval with few obligations on their part. They can then claim to be "professional" psychic surgeons (or whatever) and pretend to be proper doctors. And foremost among those pressing for this sort of phony respectability has been the Prince of Wales Foundation for Integrated Health (see here and here) Conservative party supports homeopathy: official(!)The list of NHS Trusts that are cutting funding for homeopathy keeps growing (they are listed in a letter from Peter Fisher, no less). There is real hope that reason will prevail. Part of the backlash has been the tabling of an early day motion (1240) in parliament (these aren't voted on, but are just a sort of publicity stunt). EDM1240 opposes closure of homeopathic hospitals, though it is curiosly ambiguous“complementary medicine has the potential to offer clinically-effective and cost-effective solutions” (my italics) The list if signatories is pretty depressing. It includes some MPs whom, in other ways. I particularly admire, for example Glenda Jackson and Robert Marhsall-Andrews, as well as quite a lot whom I don't admire a bit. Ignorance of science is, sadly, pretty common in all parties. The signatories include my own MP, Mike Penning (a rather right wing conservative). I wrote to him, and was surprised to hear that support for homeopathy is official Conservative policy. I quote from his reply. “As you can see from the enclosed standard letter the Conservative Party's view is that there should be a small amount of money made available for homeopathic hospitals.” OK, it is pretty half-hearted support, presumably based as much on the fact that believers in magic have more votes than scientists. The acccompanying statement says, with fine disregard for the facts, “Homeopathy and alternative treatments are a valuable resource for doctors to be able to draw upon when offering treatments.” Well, I guess the Conservatives' belief in the irrational magic is no worse that that of the Blairs. Multivitamins linked to increased death rate from prostate cancer (?)Another blow for the "Nutritional therapy" scam has appeared in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Men who take large doses of multivitamin (and other) supplements had a relative risk of fatal prostate cancer almost twice as big as those who don't. Does this mean that taking vitamin supplements increases you risk of death? The BBC report says "Taking lots of multivitamins may increase the risk of deadly prostate cancer, say US researchers". Somebody (does anyone know who?) said never bother to read a report with 'may' in the title. The result was reported widely in the papers, but none of the reports bothered to explain why the ubiquitous 'may' appeared. To find out more you have to read the original paper (download it here). The study was a big one. It involved 294 344 men (age 50 - 71) selected from 3.5 million people who had been recruited for a long term study of diet and health. They filled in questionnaires in 1995 - 6 and in 1996 - 7, to establish their (reported) intake of vitamin supplements and other relevant data. This is good because it is a prospective study: the people who take part are selected before the outcome is known, On the other hand, it is bad because it was not a randomised study. This may sound a bit recondite, but it is very fundamental. If we want to know whether vitamin supplements cause fatal prostate cancer the study would have to be done differently. We would have to select a sample of men and allocate them randomly to two groups, one group taking the vitamins, the other taking similar dummy tablets. This is the famous randomised controlled trial and it has been well-understood since the 1930s. If people choose for themselves whether or not to take vitamins, as in this (and most other) studies, the evidence is necessarily much weaker, because the sort of people who decide to stuff vitamins are likely to differ in all sorts of other ways from those who don't. All this is explained openly and clearly in the DIscussion section of the original paper (but not by the reports in newspapers). For example “The increased risk of advanced prostate cancer and prostate cancer mortality with heavy use of multivitamins among men with a positive family history of prostate cancer could be due to men with a positive family history taking additional, unspecified supplements as part of a “prostate health” package to prevent the future development of prostate cancer.” Also, the observations could not distinguish between effects of vitamins and effects of other things like iron, zinc, selenium, folic acid, beta-carotene and saw palmetto which are also often taken by invetarate pill-poppers. Other recent observations have suggested that supplements make actually do harm (see here and here). So what are we meant to believe? The evidence, at a minimum, does not support the idea that any of these supplements do you any good, so just don't take them. That will save you money and it may even be better for your health. It's a bit like the food-colouring debate. The evidence that the green dye in you frozen peas does you any harm is ambiguous, but you just don't need it, so why eat it? The bizarre case of CarcinPLUSInteresting name uh? What could it be meant for? Any resemblance to 'carcinoma' is just coincidental of course. After all it is illegal both in the USA and the UK to sell something as a cancer cure. Well it seems to be good stuff. The producers's web site, says “Introducing CarcinPLUS a brand new concept in homeopathic medicine with multiple applications for both humans and animals ” but it is strangely coy about what these "multiple applications" are. You are referred to a publication in "The International Journal of Healing and Caring – On Line". This is not a journal that appears in the National Library of Medicine. The article is by M Sue Benford, president of PHISinc, and it is nothing if not bizarre. Here is the abstract.
You can't get much more bizarre than that. Benford has tried to recruit patients though. You can see the appeal on a web site that certainly does claim to cure cancer ("Cancer Is Easy To Overcome -I'll Show You How" ) ”Here is the appeal Jonathan sent me yesterday for the study participants. He says he knows nothing more about "Sue" (the researcher) except that she is "totally on top of her subject and that she is involved in bona fide research." She does not want to attract FDA attention at this stage of the study.” [My emphasis] An enquiry by a friend got this reply from Benford.
These pills, which contain no active ingredient, will, I am told, cost the patient $110.45 for 100 doses. How did I come across these amazing claims? Benford was foolish enough to try a get a bit of free advertising by sending a response to the debate in the British Medical Journal about assessment of homeopathy. See it here. That wasn't smart, given her wish to avoid the attention of the FDA. And it got me looking too. This was my response in the BMJ.
Can't get more bizarre than that?Well perhaps you can. The same Sue Benford has a publication, listed in Medline. It purports to “demystify unexplained anomalies such as idiopathic thermogenesis, halos and auras, and incorruptibility of human corpses”. Beat that.
Precomp Inc, of Dublin Ohio, the biotechnology start-up company mentioned in the address, is something of a mystery. Benford was its president and CEO. In 1996 it received two NIH Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) awards ($281,811), but these were apparently for perfectly good science, done not by Benford, but by Ohio University Scientists. Exploring New Vistas of Science and Spirit is yet another Benford web site, this one run in collaboration with Joseph Marino, a catholic priest. That, I suppose, might explain the arcane interest in spontaneous human combustion and the incorruptibility of human corpses. And if you believe all this, you'll believe anything. Good sense in the Daily MailYes, you read that correctly. The Mail published a powerful piece by Michael Baum "Homeopathy is worse than witchcraft - and the NHS must stop paying for it". Read it here.
Tunbridge Wells Homeopathic Hospital: please help to make sure it shutsThe BBC News reports the expected resistance to the closure of the Tunbridge Wells Homeopathic Hospital, which was announced last year.
The West Kent PCT has a report from their "Directorate of Civic Engagement". This lists "underlying basic principles that the PCT is committed to". This list contains, inter alia, “The pursuit and performance of evidence based clinical practise” The West Kent PCT consultation announcement is now public. The consultation document can be downloaded as can the feedback form. The bad news is thay you can send in the feedback form only if you live in West Kent. As someone has already pointed out on Badscience, it isn't a good idea to falsify the form, But I see no reason why one shouldn't write to the PCT to express and opinion, while declaring that you aren't in the local area. The address is
And just to keep your conscience clear, better put a stamp on it. Red Clover and herbal spinThe Health Supplements Information Service (HSIS) is a spin organisation for the supplements industry. It was mentioned below, when they attempted to discredit a report that suppplements could actually increase mortality. In that case Ann Walker spoke for HSIS. The same Ann Walker wrote an editorial for the British Journal of General Practice (January 2007), "Potential micronutrient deficiency lacks recognition in diabetes". The conclusion is "Although still considered to be controversial by some, taking a daily multinutrient supplement would bridge the gap between intake and requirements and ensure that nutrient target intakes are met". The affiliation given is senior lecturer in nutrition at the University of Reading, where she has a one-tenth full time appointment. No competing interests are declared. The University of Reading tells me that she has "consultancies for two supplement companies and for the Health Supplement Information Service. Dr Walker has also declared a private patients clinic".
And is red clover really good for "symptoms of the menopause"? There is quite a different view on Medline Plus. This is an information service run by the US National Librery of Medicine and National Institutes of Health. They say, of red clover for menopausal symptoms, “most of the available human studies are poorly designed and short in duration (less than 12 weeks of treatment).As results of published studies conflict with each other, more research is needed before a clear conclusion can be drawn.”Medline Plus lists six other indications for red clover that have been suggested by herbalists. The conclusion in all seven cases is "Unclear scientific evidence for this use" Likewise, New Vitality says of elderflower “The primary use of elderflowers is for colds and influenze where its anti-viral properties come into play.” But Medline Plus says “it remains unclear whether there is truly any benefit from elder for this condition. Additional research is needed in this area before a firm conclusion can be reached. Elder should not be used in the place of other more proven therapies, and patients are advised to discuss influenza vaccination with their primary healthcare provider. It should be noted that the berries must be cooked to prevent nausea or cyanide toxicity.” Complaints about this itemI have had no complaints myself, but Ann Walker's husband has written directly to the Provost of UCL and even to the chair of UCL's Council. The provost made it clear that he has no legal grounds for complaint (see above). I also heard indirectly of a complaint from the University of Reading's marketing director (yes, marketing dirrector!), Ann Wilstead. The main objection seemed to be to my use of the word "gobbledygook". On 22nd May, I replied to Ms Wilstead as follows. “I'd also be grateful if you could provide me with definitions of the terms "blood cleanser" or a "cleanser of the lymphatic system". It is true that I describe these terms as gobbledygook, because they are terms unknown to science. If you can persuade me otherwise I'll happily change the description.” Thus far I have had no reply. Lakin's complaint was, no doubt, technically correct when he said that I had breached copyright by reproducing a graphic from the New Vitality web site. This free advertising was evidently not appreciated. I apologise for that, and the offending graphic has now been replaced with another one that quotes their words. Acupuncture doesn't work to stop smokingThe latest if the highly-respected Cochrane reviews concludes “There is no consistent evidence that acupuncture, acupressure, laser therapy or electrostimulation are effective for smoking cessation, but methodological problems mean that no firm conclusions can be drawn.” And how many times have you read that? One inconclusive trial after another. More on acupuncture below Two gross scamsThese two, brought to my attention by correspondents, are unusually outrageous in that the advertised ingredients don't even exist! Pherlure Cologne for menThis wonder product "will help you attract sexual attention instantly from the opposite sex". Or so it says at http://www.pherlure.com/. And what's the evidence?
But guess what? The alleged ingredient, "Di-Dehydroepiandrosterone", is not any known chemical. And nobody can trace the alleged study. There is a very thorough debunking at http://www.pherlure.info/ Anatrim.There has been a barrage of spam email advertising this wonder slimming treatment. Much of the advertising says it contains "Anatrim gordonii", a non-existent plant. It is widely supposed that this is Hoodia gordinii cactus from Southern Africa. Nobody knows who makes the stuff. The origin of some of the advertising has been traced to China. The good thing is that several web sites have sprung up to debunk this scam, e.g. Consumer Health Digest and http://www.anatrim.org/. Chondroitin does not work for osteoarthritis (and probably glucosamine doesn't work either)Sales of chondroitin and glucosamine are a worth billions of dollars, but the evidence that they work has never been good. A new meta-analysis of clinical trials now shows that chondroitin on the symptoms of osteoarthritis is "minimal or nonexistent". (Reichenbach S and others. Meta-analysis: Chondroitin for osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. Annals of Internal Medicine 146:580-590, 2007: download the paper]
Analyses by ConsumerLab.com has reported that 8 out of 20 products said to contain chondroitin failed its quality tests, with four containing between 0% and 8% of amount stated on the label. Glucosamine shows a similar trend. Glucosamine is a synthetic chemical, but it is not a licensed medicine in the UK. It is marketed as a "food supplement", not as a drug. It is not approved for precription on the NHS. The latest Cochrane review does not entirely rule out some benefit, but again the effects seem to get smaller as the trials get better. Thanks to Quackwatch for the alert about the Reichenbach paper. Virginia Tech shootingsMy twopennorth is on the politics page, click here.This is a corkerThis fine bit of abuse is on glastoburyofthemind. Just for the record, my research has been funded by the MRC and the Wellcome Trust: it has never been funded by the pharmaceutical industry. Here is one reason why. I will admit, though, that I've never heard of Spank Rock. The power of Verdi's requiem is wonderful (especially because Verdi was a non-believer). Just don't pretend that use of the word "power" has anything to do with science. The amazing thing about quacks is that they love to use the language of science while at the same time despising it.
The Royal London Homeopathic Hospital (RLHH) has problemsThe news is out. It was in February this year when I first saw some "Commissioning Intentions 2007-08" documents from several London NHS Primary Care Trusts (PCT), indicating their intention to break their contracts with the RLHH on the very reasonable grounds that homeopathy doesn't work. It seemed better to wait for the intentions to be implemented before saying much, because of the inevitable outcry from those who want sugar pills at the taxpayers' expense. Then, in March 2007, the Health Services Journal carried a story "PCTs consider alternative to homeopathic hospitals" (free registration, or read it here).
The backlashThe reaction seems to have started with a letter from homeopath Carol Boyce. Her letter starts thus.
I'd guess the very first sentence must be something of an embarrassment to the RLHH's clinical director, who is far too sensible to believe that cholera can be cured by homeopathic sugar pills. The red herring about cholera is repeated ad nauseam on hundreds of homeopathy sites (though most are curiously silent about whether they really believe that sugar pills can cure cholera). It is based on the report that during the London Cholera epidemic of 1854, of the 61 cases of cholera treated at the London Homeopathic Hospital, 10 died (16.4%), whereas the neighbouring Middlesex Hospital reported 123 deaths out of 231 cases of cholera (53.2%). Apart from the lack of any knowledge of the state of the patients on entry to hospital, it was also the case at the time that conventional medicine was no more based on evidence than homeopathy. Indeed the initial popularity of homeopathy could well have resulted not only from wishful thinking, but also because doing nothing at all (i.e. homeopathy) was less harmful than blood letting. The fallacy of the argument was spotted very early on by Oliver Wendell Holmes (senior) in his famous essay, Homeopathy and its Kindred Delusions. But medicine moved on and homeopathy didn't. The history of cholera, like that of tuberculosis, contrary to what is suggested by homeopaths, is a triumph for evidence based medicine. The epidemic was halted not by homeopaths but by the careful observations of John Snow that led to his removing the handle of the Broad Street pump. If medicine had been left to homeopaths, people would still be dying of these diseases. Carol Boyce invites you to write directly to Queen Elizabeth II, to save the RLHH. She has also started an e-petition on the UK government site. The petition includes the words
Ms Boyce seems not to have noticed that the Prince of Wales' own Smallwood report decided that there was not enough evidence to come to firm conclusions about cost-effectiveness. Peter Fisher himself has appealed for the survival of the RLHH in a letter dated 9 March 2007.
There is no silly talk about cholera here, but there is a useful list of Trusts who have decided to abandon "unproven and disproved treatments". Fisher recommends you to read Marcia Angell's book to learn about the deficiencies of the drug industry. I recommend that too. I also recommend Dan Hurley's book on the even greater deficiencies of the quackery industry. Fisher suggests you write to your MP to prevent closure of the RLHH. Times Higher Education Supplement (THES), and another response from WestminsterFollowing the kerfuffle caused by Nature, THES asked for 800 words on the same topic, Bachelor of Science degrees in subjects that are anti–science (read it here). Every time I read an official validation document I am reminded inexorably of the inimitable Laurie Taylor, which is why the article starts thus.
As it happens, Laurie Taylor's column in the same issue of THES is on "Maintaining Standards", and is as grimly hilarious as always. And his column in the following week (13th April) was about the report of the external examiner, Professor J.K.L. Anonymous, on the Universlity of Poppleton's BSc in palmistry ("There were 36 first-class papers, 22 upper seconds and only one marginal failure". Well, there's a coincidence. My piece ends thus.
THES plans soon to bring us some responses from the hitherto elusive vice chancellors. That should be interesting.
In fact homeopaths at Westminster get two courses on Physiology and two on anatomy out of a total of 22 courses. They get no biochemistry and no pharmacology at all. The standard of these courses is quite unknown because the university refuses to disclose any of its teaching materials. Let’s suppose, for the sake of argument, that they are good. You can’t learn physiology without subscribing to the principles of chemistry and physics. These principles include Avogadro’s number and the very basic idea that response to a drug usually increases as you increase the dose. Both of these ideas are inconsistent with “homeopathic philosophy” (also the subject of four courses). So on Mondays and Thursdays (for example) the students must believe that response increases with dose, but on Tuesdays and Fridays they are called upon to believe that response decreases with dose. Isbell admits as much himself when he says “at times students have to work with conflicting scientific models that may not always fit with their clinical practice”. What he does not say is how this absurd conflict is resolved, or how it can be made compatible with science or simple common sense. The course evidently teaches you how to believe several mutually contradictory things at the same time, or at least on alternating days. You don't need to be a scientist to see that is plain daft. Not only are some of the doctrines of CAM incompatible with science or common sense, but they are often also incompatible with each other. Homeopaths subscribe to the bizarre doctrine that the less you give the bigger the effect, but herbalists do not. Herbal medicine is nothing other than pharmacology, albeit pharmacology as practised at the beginning of the 20th century, before biological standardisation was introduced to assure constant potency of medicines. So they want to give a sensible dose, but don't know what it is. Nutritional therapists go to the opposite extreme and want to give huge (and sometimes toxic) doses. I have been told that herbal medicine students at Westminster are instructed not to talk to the homeopaths in another part of Isbell’s school, because they talk rubbish. They even have separate sections on the university’s intranet, so that one sort of CAM can’t be polluted by the beliefs of a different sort of CAM. Likewise, students of reflexology are taught that a small area on the big toe is connected with the pituitary gland. Not only is this incompatible with physiology, but it is also incompatible with homeopathy, herbal medicine and nutritional therapy. The department of complementary therapies seems to resemble a collection of religious sects at war with each other, rather than anything recognisable as science. The second plank in Isbell's new defence is that students are taught to develop research skills. Homeopathy students get one course (out of 22) called "Methods of Research in Complementary Medicine", and a project, "Research in Practice". It is impossible to know what is taught on these courses because the university refuses to release any of the course materials. But I find it hard to imagine that the courses are very critical when the official response from the university cited the Spence (2005) study as though it provided evidence for the efficacy of homeopathy. If that is the best the teachers can do, what hope is there for the students? Th first response from the University of WestminsterThe day after the Nature commentary, the University of Westminster issued a statement in response. Let's take a look at it.
Well, since the University has so far refused to release any of the documents, it is hard to judge what that validation is worth. The validation documents will, no doubt, appear eventually. Watch this space. One mechanism that is intended to maintain the standard of degrees is the external examiner. Their identities, like almost everything else, are kept secret. In the case of the Westminster BSc in homeopathy, however, we are in luck. According to the Teaching Quality Information (TQI) site, their external examiner is the "Chair of the Society of Homoeopaths". Since April 2004, that has been Andy Kirk RSHom, a homeopath in private practice, with no degree and no scientific qualifications. He, I imagine, is not likely to question the bizarre homeopathic doctrine that the smaller the dose you give, the bigger effect you get. Correction (4 April 2007). It seems that Westminster supplied wrong information to the TQI site, and the external examiner is not Kirk. They refuse to say who it is. But watch this space.
Yes, I'm sure it did. The Society of Homeopaths is an organisation for homeopaths who have no medical qualification. Their scientific credentials can be judged from this quotation from their web site. “If they are so dilute, how can they work? This is pure gobbledygook. The word "energy" is being used in a way unknown to science. It is mere armwaving in an attempt to 'explain' a phenomenon that almost certainly doesn't occur anyway.
(Notice the Freudian slip. That should be 70%) The study to which they allude here has to be the worst paper ever published. It is the infamous Spence (2005) study, which is dealt with below. Oddly enough, this paper is one that Westminster students were asked to assess critically. Sadly, though, it hasn't been possible to see any marked answers. The fact that this is the best evidence that the University can produce in response to criticisms is, perhaps, the best reason ever to think that the material being taught is not, in any sense, science, and is not appropriate for a BSc. It seems that they are hoist by their own petard. ![]() The Nature title picture was 'Taken from The Complete Guide to Homeopathy, © Dorling Kindersley Ltd' (not a recommmended text book at UCL) Nature (March 22 2007) ran this commentary, alongside a News item by Jim Giles: “Degrees in homeopathy slated as unscientific”and a Nature podcast [listen to podcast]. Here is some of the coverage of this commentary (more soon, including some of the abuse). Interview on the BBC's Today Programme, with Edward Stourton. Material World (BBC Radio 4). This excellent science programme, presented by Quentin Cooper, had a longer version of DC versus David Peters (Westminster University). There was helpful intervention from Michael Marmot who had talked, in the first half of the programme, about his longitudinal population studies. [listen to part 2]. Radio 5 Live interview. BBC London News (BBC1 TV), An interview of DC and Peter Fisher by the News Presenter, Riz Lateef. Dr Fisher, who is clinical director of the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital, made a very interesting comment, at the end of a discussion about whether homeopathy was a suitable subject for a science degree. [watch the video]
Evidence? During the interview, Peter Fisher said “. . .if you look in the Cochrane library, . . . you will find that there are two treatments for flu that appear to be effective, and one of them is homeopathic” I presume this refers to the Cochrane review "Homoeopathic Oscillococcinum for preventing and treating influenza and influenza-like syndromes". What this actually says is
Well, it might, but even if it did, the average length of the putative "shortening" of the illness was a mere 0.28 days, i.e. 6.7 hours. To call that "effective" seems to me to be just a tiny bit of an exaggeration. The newspapers “Faith-based degree ‘damages science’ ”
“Homeopathy science degrees 'gobbledygook' ” “Alternative medicine degrees 'anti-scientific' ”
“Universities 'are duping students with homeopathy science degrees' ” “Less than complementary?” “Alternative therapy degree attack” “University homoeopathy degrees 'gobbledygook', claims Professor” and the story even got into the free London papers, Metro and The London Paper And some from abroad “British health expert brands homeopathy 'gobbledygook'”
“Homeopathic Degree in Britain Puts Scientific Gloss on Nonscientific Dross, Critics Say” UK Fight Over Anti-Science in Medicine Some follow up “A matter of degree. Why the letters after a homoeopath’s name really do count” Ann Robinson, in the Guardian's Comment is Free (Sunday 25th March) gives me a bit of a slagging off. But her piece is followed by a flood of comments, almost all of them thoroughly sensible. One comment, from 'Midas' ends thus.
And the blogs: quite a lot of blogs picked up the story. Thanks to everyone who sent letters of support, not least the regular scientists from Westminster, and University of Central Lancashire who are clearly rather embarrassed by their homeopathic colleagues. Inevitably there were a few bits of hate mail too, each answered politely, and some even resulting in a degree of agreement. The only one worth quoting is a rather mild one from George Lewith (see below).
I guess one of us is out of sync anyway. Unlike George (it appears), I know little about architecture, but the idea of design for a tower block based on homeopathic principles sounds a bit scary to me. |
Items Laying-on-of-hands: just tick the box Assessment metrics: bad science Fish oil: what NICE actually said New Labour and psychic surgery Tories support magic: official. Do vitamin supplements cause prostate cancer? CarcinPLUS: can this be legal? Homeopathic hospital in trouble? Prince of Wales "meddling in politics" Supplements kill, garlic useless-updated Holford and Bedfordshire University HRH and the "anti-MRSA aromatherapy inhaler" GSK, Seroxat and Brown University Rose "trounces" Armitage on Radio MHRA allows false labelling of Arnica Blair on science and anti-science Nonsense from Consumers' Assoc Conflict of interest at the RLHH The MHRA's disgraceful statement Acupuncture: inconclusive again Homeopathy: Holmes, Hogwarts, and the Prince of Wales More babble from the Prince of Wales Psychiatrist promoted drugs for money Beware: Institute of Science in Society Boots the Chemists -miseducation Big pharma and invented disease Magnets: Freedom of Information!! Magnets: Unfreedom of information at the DoH. B.Sc. 'degrees' in gobbledygook University of Pennsylvania quacks The Journal of Imaginary Genomics London quacks: Royal London Homeopathic Hospital Cost of homeopathic hospital to taxpayers Open university teaches quackery BBC2/Open Univ series on alternative medicine.:Part 1 and Part 3. Alt Med: Dirty tricks at the BBC? New age twaddle in the Independent Homeopathy: relict of the past Lancet: “The end of homeopathy” Acupuncture trials: contradictory? The (conventional) drug industry Académie de Médecine condemns homeopathy Florida State University of quackery Pharmaceutical Industry, Clinicians and Money Faulty homeopathy trial for fibrositis |
The second week in March 2007 was a champion. Two different nutrition stories hit the headlines, both misreported and neither very informative. More fish oil (below) and the alleged benefits of grape juice.
The inimitable Ben Goldacre has dealt with yet another story about the miraculous effects of omega-3. Read it on badscience.net.
The media were full of utterly uncritical reports of a programme that was to be broadcast by Channel 5 TV. For example, "Supplement 'boosts' brain power" [BBC].
The report in the Times was particularly uncritical. "Fat pupils on fish oils make a mental leap", with a subtitle "Fatty acids can help children in exams and improve their behaviour in class and at home, a study suggests.". But the "study" was on only four (very untypically heavy) children, it had no control group, and it did not measure behaviour or exam performance, but rather a chemical in the brain.
“The results were astonishing,” said Professor Basant Puri, who led the study. “In three months you might expect to see a small NAA increase. But we saw as much growth as you would normally see in three years
Professor Basant Puri is head of the Lipid Neuroscience Group at Imperial College London, and MRC Clinical Sciences Centre, Hammersmith Hospital. He has published quite a lot in this area.
Dr Alex Richardson (Oxford), who has worked a lot with Prof Puri, has dissociated herself from this study.
Professor Puri gave a talk on the use EPA for "Beating the blues, M.E and tiredness" at the Inner Potential Centre. Other talks in the series there include "Psychic Weekends", "Tibetan Mountain Body Movements", "Self-healing in minutes with iiYoga", "Divine Earth mysteries by dowsing" and "Holistic Cancer Solutions". The mind boggles.
Why is it that we discover only from Ben Goldacre that Professor Puri seems to have something of a vested interest in the outcome of his studies? He is the registered inventor on patent GB2409644, for "Formulation comprising eicosapentanoic acid or an ester thereof and a triterpene or an ester therof". The applicant/proprieter on this patent is IGENNUS Ltd of Cambridge.
The Channel 5 TV programme in which this work was featured was mysteriously cancelled at the last moment. I wonder why?
Following a press release from the University of Glasgow, news media round the world carried the story that grape juice could prolong your life more than any other sort of fruit juice. David Rose in The Times: "The juicy route to good health". Jeremy Laurence in the Independent "Why a glass of grape may be best way to start your day". ; The BBC: "Study shows fruit juice benefits". The BBC report goes on "A diet rich in fruit juice could cut the risk of Alzheimer's disease and other diseases, according to research", and "Grape juice was found to be one of the most beneficial juices".
But the study to which these reports refer did not measure any health benefits whatsoever. The paper is "Evaluation of Phenolic Compounds in Commercial Fruit Juices and Fruit Drinks (W. Mullem, S.C. Marks and Alan Crozier. It was an exercise in analytical chemistry.
Furthermore, the Independent was the only newspaper to spot that
“The research was funded by the National Grape Co-operative, a consortium of farmers in the US owned by Welch's, makers of Concord purple grape juice.”
This is not mentioned in the University's press release (though it was in the paper itself). Of course the sponsorship does not mean there is anything wrong with the results, but declaration of financial is now considered to be very important.
The paper concludes that
“The [Welch's] purple grape juice contained the highest levels of phenolics and antioxidants”
But does this really mean better health? The anti-oxidant story, after all, has been pretty thoroughly discredited some time ago (though it is still live and well in the advertisements of the supplements industry).
So where does the health come in? Professor Alan Crozier said, in his paper
“In view of the recent findings of the Kame project indicating that long-term fruit juice consumption can provide protection against Alzheimer’s disease (Dai et al. Am. J. Med. 2006, 379, 464-475), it is suggested that the protective effects may be enhanced by consumption of a combination of juices rich in phenolics and containing a diverse variety of individual phenolic compounds, namely, juices derived from purple grapes, grapefruit, cranberries, and apples.”
The Kame project was a prospective study over 10 years on 1836 Japanese Americans. It was not randomised: people who reported drinking a lot of juice seemed to have a lower chance of developing Alzheimer's disease over 10 years (but no correlation was seen with intake of vitamins E, C, or beta-carotene or tea consumption). Because the participants were not randomly assigned, it was necessary to make corrections to the results to allow for the fact that those who drink a lot of juice are likely to differ in all sorts of ways from those who don't. For example, corrections were made for years of education, smoking status, tea-drinking frequency, regular physical activity and total fat intake. Such corrections are fallible, and of course there is no guarantee that all the possible relevant factors have been thought of.
Dr Dai, first author on the Kame project is careful to point out that the project gave no information on what sort juice of juice was drunk, and that it was not known what constituents of the juice produced the putative effects. He is quoted thus
“However promising the study results appear, Dai cautioned, it’s important that the general public not jump the gun regarding the value of juice as a preventive measure for Alzheimer’s disease.
“A few years ago, hormone replacement therapy, NSAIDs (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) and antioxidant vitamins showed promise (in preventing or slowing Alzheimer’s disease), but recent clinical trials indicate that they do not,” Dai said. “More study, I think, is needed.” ”
If the media reporters, and Glasgow university's PR dapartment, had read and understood some of this background, their reporting might have been a bit more accurate.
Professor Crozier has research funding from the following.
It must be hard to be seen as independent when you take money fron Nestlé and Coca Cola. The WCRF, incidentally, is not a conventional cancer researh organisation but is dedicated to the view that cancer can be prevented by changes in diet and lifestyle. Many of its claims are unproven.
The British Medical Journal (2007, 337, 508 – 509) held a debate on whether or not CAM should be referred for evaluation to the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) [see it here]. Two of the comments that followed the debate were as follows
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John R King, Consultant Psychiatrist David Colquhoun (“NICE should not have to evaluate alternative medicine”) makes a better case than Linda Franck et al. Space researchers do not, after all, waste time trying to disprove the beliefs of flat- earthists. Neither would it be helpful for a Nobel prizewinning chemist to stride into a church and denounce the holy water there as nothing more than H2O. There is a very large and ever expanding array of alternative treatments, some more bizarre than others, which could tie up the resources of NICE for an indefinite period. But if people want to believe in them – or in fairies or leprechauns – they should be left in peace to do so. It is no concern of scientific medicine. |
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David Colquhoun, UCL Nobody is proposing to ban fairies or leprechauns. It would be both undesirable and impossible. There does seem to be a case, though, for not providing leprechauns at the tax payers' expense. And really all leprechauns that are sold to the public should have labels that don't make false claims for their powers. Unfortunately the MLRA (Medicines and Leprechauns Regulatory Agency) has let us down in the matter of labelling. I suspect infiltration of the Department of Health by little green men |
Channel 4 TV, Monday 12th March, The is the title of the Channel 4 TV documentary, Dispatches.
Lord Wedderburn, QC, a life peer and Emeritus Professor of Law at the London School of Economics, tells the programme:
“If, in fact, nothing changed and he became King, then there would be a most almighty fuss and controversy, and eventually the whole fabric of the constitutional monarchy could be threatened.”
The Prince's Foundation for Integrated Health (FIH) is the Prince's lobby group which attempts to make the hard-pressed NHS spend more money on unproven and disproved treatments. The FIH publishes "Complementary Healthcare: a Guide for Patients". This document is not just barmy, but positively dangerous. In the rebuttal of the programme on the FIH web site, they claim that they do not promote alternative medicine, but elsewhere on the site they state their aim as "makes safe and effective complementary therapies available to patients in conjunction with conventional healthcare". Which would be all very well if they didn't consistently ignore the evidence for effectiveness.
The MHRA recently, for the first time, betrayed its brief to nake sure that medicines work and are safe. This action has been condemned by just about every professional organisation. Nobody knows exactly what caused them to lose their heads in this way, but it is clear that they were under pressure from both the Department of Health and from the Prince of Wales. The Department of Health is clearly sympathetic to quackery, as shown by the letter below, and by their refusal to allow alternative medicine to be referred to NICE for assessment.
| The MHRA admit to having had at least seven letters form the Prince of Wales, and we know that an MHRA member has met the Prince at Clarence House at least once. But all the contents are secret from the public. The Chairman of the MHRA Agency Board, Prof Alasdair Breckenridge, and chairman of their Herbal Medicines committee, Prof Philip Routledge, have both admitted to me to having had pressure from the Prince of Wales, but neither will give any details, despite having been condemned by their own professional organisation, the British Pharmacological Society. | ![]() |
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Edzard Ernst was the UK's first professor of complementary medicine, and he is rather unusual in that field because he is totally honest, and very careful about evidence (something that has not always endeared him to the alternative medicine industry). A letter was sent from Clarence House to the vice-chancellor of Exeter University, Steve Smith. The letter alleged a breach of confidence by Ernst. Having been sent a draft of the Smallwood report, Ernst was so horrified by the scientific standards in that document, he felt obliged, in the public interest, to speak out about it. Ernst was contacted by a newspaper, which had a copy of the draft, and described the initial findings as "outrageous and deeply flawed". He added: "It is based on such poor science, it's just hair-raising. The Prince ... also seems to have overstepped his constitutional role" |
![]() Prof Edzard Ernst. |
Prof Ernst was doing exactly what academics are meant to do. As a result he was subjected to a very prolonged disciplinary procedure, and for a year it was not obvious whether he'd keep his job. For a Prince, in a constitutional monarchy, to put pressure on a university to silence a conspicuously honest academic is just not acceptable.
The Prince of Wales behaviour was bad enough, but, to be generous, he is perhaps, a well-meaning but poorly educated man, filling in his time as best he can.
In the story of Edzard Ernst, the behaviour of the Vice-Chancellor of Exeter University, Prof Steve Smith seems to me to be unforgiveable. Instead of supporting his staff, and supporting academic freedom, he appeared to cower before the Clarence House letterhead. After keeping Prof Ernst on tenterhooks for an entire year he eventually deigned not to fire him in the most grudging and unpleasant way imaginable. That is illustrated by the end of Smith's letter to Professor Ernst on 13th October 2006. It was shown on the TV programme, and is reproduced below.
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![]() Prof. Steve Smith, Vice chancellor. |
The Daily Mail also has features on the healthiness of HRH's own food lines, after his criticism of MacDonalds, Dutchy Original Sins, and here. They are worth reading because the advice comes from Catherine Collins, a real dietician, not a nutribollocks guru.
Some responses The story was reported round the world.
Max Hastings (Guardian)“To make good use of evidence, it is essential to possess not only intelligence, but a capacity for disciplined analysis. The prince has considerable virtues, a good heart notable among them. But he has always lacked discipline in his life and in his treatment of issues. Again and again, he gets himself into trouble by seeking to address matters that are, frankly, beyond his intellectual reach.”
That is the conclusion of a recent paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association, “Mortality in Randomized Trials of Antioxidant Supplements for Primary and Secondary Prevention” Systematic Review and Meta-analysis”, [Get the full text].
This isn't original research, but a meta analysis that attempts to collate existing data taking into account the reliability of each source. The aim was to analyze the effects of antioxidant supplements (beta carotene, vitamins A and E, vitamin C [ascorbic acid], and selenium) on deaths (from any cause) in adults. The analysis seems to have been done well, and the results are startling. They are